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Handicapper Blog

Posted by Darin Zoccali on Friday, October 26, 2012 3:33 PM

 Race 1: Breeders Crown Open Mare Trot 

In a division that has been crying out for a superstar all season, the first Breeders Crown event is one of the best betting races of the card.  So if you were thinking of easing you’re way into the evening, think again.  FRENCHFRYSNVINEGAR was a dominant winner in Lexington, but it’s hard to envision her just bottoming out the field again, especially while not wanting to take a short price.  AUTUMN ESCAPADE looks live to me.  She has been given a very light campaign at age 7, as it seems likely her connections have been pointing her to this race.   She flashed good trot in the stretch last week and she seems to be sharp now and only the trip stands in the way of her being a major player.  MYSTICAL STARLIGHT looks like a mare that can close into it from far off the pace.  It’s possible that she will be left with too much to do to win the race, but she certainly is a candidate to round out exotics. 

Play: $20 Win #7 Autumn Escapade  

Play: $5 Exacta Box (7-8-9)  $30 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (7-8-9 with 7-8-9  with 2-5-6-7-8-9)  $24 Wager 

Race 2: Breeders Crown Two Year Filly Pace 

SOMWHEROVRARAINBOW could very well be the filly to beat.  She has found her best stride recently and her effort in the elimination was eye-opening.  She is going to take plenty of action as well.  The filly that finished 2nd to her in the elimination is intriguing.  LOVE CANAL was shuffled back to last and was forced to angle to the extreme outside in the stretch while the winner was sitting a perfect ground saving journey tracking the favorite.  When the winner made the lead, she had a six length jump on LOVE CANAL and both fillies finished with the same rapid acceleration.  I will take the better price of the two and hope for a better trip.  Just two weeks ago, L DEES LIONESS and I LUV THE NITELIFE would have been 8/5 and 2/1 in this race.  Both fillies can win, so if you fancy either of them take a chance, because the price will be better than you could have ever imagined. 

Play: $20 Win #7 Love Canal 

Play: $1 Trifecta (7 with 1,2,3,5  with 1,2,3,4,5,10)  $20 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (1,2,3,5 with 7 with 1,2,3,4,5,10)  $20 Wager 

Race 3: Breeders Crown Open Trot 

There isn’t much to be said in this race.  Obviously it is not a very good betting race.  It’s CHAPTER SEVEN’s  race to lose and actually COMMANDER CROWE would be much more appealing in larger field, which is what he is accustomed to racing in.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Martens actually sends him to the lead and just lets him sprint.  Either way I cannot recommend any type of a wager.  So just sit back and relax and enjoy the show. 

No Play 

Race 4: Breeders Crown Three Year Old Filly Pace 

AMERICAN JEWEL and ECONOMY TERROR renew their rivalry once again and they provided a thrilling stretch drive in the elimination.  They will face a challenge from ROMANTIC MOMENT as well who opened up a wide lead in the stretch, but raced on the left line while slowing considerably coming down to the wire.  I am not of the opinion she was just geared down.  ROCKAROUND SUE has been a cut below, but she was flat out flying in her elimination.  While it may appear she was finishing faster than she actually was, considering ROMANTIC MOMENT was stopping, it was still a 26.2 final quarter.  She has 3 consecutive sub-27 final quarters and the only other filly in the race that can say that is AMERICAN JEWEL.  Is it a stretch that she can win? Maybe, but she is without question, the value of the race.   

Play: $20 Win 7 Rockaround Sue 

Play: $1 Trifecta (7 with 1,3,4  with 1,2,3,4,5) $12 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (1,3,4 with 7 with 1,2,3,4,5) $12 Wager 

Play: $1 Pick 4 (1,3,4,7  with 3,6,7  with 1,2  with 3)  $24 Wager 

Race 5: Breeders Crown Two Year Old Filly Trot 

This race will produce one of the shortest priced favorites of the night in TO DREAM ON.  Her lone defeat came at the hands of BEE A MAGICIAN in Canada who she faces again in this spot.  It’s hard to imagine, but if BEE A MAGICIAN wins again, it’s hard for her not to be voted the two year old filly trotter of the year.  If you like BEE A MAGICIAN, you may get some value in the 5/2 range, but I am looking for real value in MISTERY WOMAN.  A lightly raced daughter of Donato Hanover, MISTERY WOMAN has gotten very good, very fast, already trotting in under 1:54, so we know she is plenty fast enough.  To finished third to TO DREAM ON in her third lifetime start, while trotting a 2701 final quarter tells us that there is real talent here, and at the 10/1 morning line, she is worth a flyer. 

Play: $20 Win 3 Mistery Woman 

Play: $5 Exacta Box Wheel (5 with 6, 8) $20 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (3 with 6,7 with ALL) $16 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (6,7 with 3 with ALL) $16 Wager 

Race 6: Breeders Crown Three Year Old Filly Trot 

Obviously this race analysis has to begin with CHECK ME OUT.  She could stamp herself a Horse Of The Year with a win in the Breeders Crown.  But once again, the price just will not be there.  MAVEN will still be the second choice, but I am scratching my head as to how she lost to Delicious in Lexington.  Gingras wants to make up for the Hambletonian Oaks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the race he wants to win most on the card.  My pick is WIN MISSY B.  It seems like the Norris/Pierce connection has figured something out as she has been much more relaxed off the gate and it has made a world of difference.  She has plenty of ability and if they have figured out how to keep her from getting too keyed up, she is more than talented enough to win this race at a very nice price. 

Play: $20 Win 2 Win Missy B 

Play: $5 Exacta Box Wheel (2 with 1,6) $20 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (2 with 1,6 with ALL)  $16 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (1,6 with 2 with ALL) $16 Wager 

Race 7: Breeders Crown Two Year Old Pace 

Let’s make this clear.  Unless one of the other two year olds in this field jumps up with the race of the lifetime, CAPTAINTREACHEROUS will win.  His only loss came in his first lifetime start where he came from the clouds with a tremendous final quarter to be second.  In all honesty he should be 1/9 in this field as it is hard to make an honest case if you want to beat him.  Personally, I think the only horse that can beat him is APPRENTICE HANOVER, but I think the 15/1 morning line is wishful thinking.  He should be the 2nd choice in this field.  I would like to give you guys a play, but I honestly feel that CAPTAINTREACHEROUS will win.  If you are desperate to bet the race all I can say is… 

Play: $10 Win Saver on 7 Apprentice Hanover 

Race 8: Breeders Crown Two Year Old Trot 

It is always exciting when you have an undefeated two year old coming into the Breeders Crown and that is the case here with WHEELING N DEALIN.  He has the home court advantage as he has never raced outside of Canada, and Sylvain Filion could have the night of his lifetime.  However, he is not considerably faster than a few others in here.  One of those is ROYALTY FOR LIFE.  He is actually the fastest of the field and he does have the speed to overcome the wide draw.  At this point, Tim Tetrick could be in the zone and if that’s the case, lookout.  When you look through the field, there are several horses that are just un-inspiring and don’t seem like serious win candidates.  To be honest, I would be surprised if ROYALTY FOR LIFE isn’t in the top 3 under the wire and that is how I will be playing the race. 

Play: $20 Win 8 Royalty For Life 

Play: $5 Exacta Box Wheel (8 with 2,3,4) $30 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta( 8 with , 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,5,7)  $12 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (1,2,3 with 8 with 1,2,3,5,7)  $12 Wager 

Play: $1 Pick 4 (1,2,3,8 with 2,3,4,5,10 with 2,9,11 with 2,8)  $120 Wager 

Race 9: Breeders Crown Three Year Old Pace 

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT – I love PANTHER HANOVER tonight.  Quite simply, he is the freshest horse in the race.  The other nine starters have averaged nearly 17 races this year, while PANTHER HANOVER will be making just his 10th start of the season.  In a year where we have seen a good group of three year old pacers beat each other up all year, PANTHER HANOVER could very well be sitting on his biggest race yet.  Following Lexington, he was given six weeks off and used his Crown Elimination as an excellent speed-tightener.  He has an ideal draw and could cap a career night for Sylvain Filion.  BETTORS EDGE has really found his best stride recently and should work out a trip where he finds the cover flow as speed should be coming from his outside.  He seems poised for a big effort.  MEL MARA was an early season disappointment, but seems to be the wise guy horse this time around.  The draw is a concern, but he should be used in gimmicks.   

Play: $50 Win 5 Panther Hanover 

Play $10 Exacta Box Wheel (5 with 2,4,10)  $30 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (5 with 2,4,10 with 1,2,3,4,7,8,10)  $18 Wager  

Play: $1 Trifecta (2,4,10 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,7,8,10)  $18 Wager 

Play: $1 Superfecta (2,5  with 2,4,5,10 with 2,4,5,10 with ALL)  $84 Wager 

Race 10: Breeders Crown Open Mare Pace 

With Put On A Show going against the boys, this race appears to come down to DROP THE BALL vs. REBEKA BAYAMA.  But, I think the race is deeper than that.  ROCKLAMATION has been right there all year and her elimination was a complete no shot toss out from post 10.  She is deceptively sharp right now and could have one big bullet in the chamber for a Crown championship.  CAMILLE cannot be dismissed either.  She is a sneaky Burke entrant that is flying under the radar who is very sharp right now.  She showed she can pace with these with a good second place finish to REBEKA BAYAMA in her prep.  I can certainly make a case for her  

Play: $20 Win 2 Rocklamation 

$5 Exacta Box Wheel (2,3 with 2,3,9,11)  $40 Wager 

$1 Trifecta (2,3 with 2,3,9,11 with 1,2,3,4,5,9,11)  $30 Wager 

Race 11: Breeders Crown Three Year Old Trot 

I am going to go shopping for a bomb in the form of ANOTHER AMARETTO.  This is a talented gelding that has recently found himself.  He raced very well in the Kentucky Futurity and has put together three consecutive sub-28 second final quarters.  I liked the acceleration he showed in the Crown Elimination and he has a perfect post for his style.  It’s hard to not see him passing horses late.  MARKET SHARE is the horse to beat and a deserving favorite.  Horse Of The Year is on the line here and it goes without saying that if he shows up with his best, it is awfully tough to beat him.  LITTLE BROWN FOX will be an underlay to me.  He is a very talented colt, but I question the field he beat in his elimination, as I have never been a huge Prestidigitator fan.  GUCCIO can be used underneath, as can INTIMIDATE. 

Play: $20 Win 5 Another Amaretto 

$5 Exacta Box Wheel (5 with 3,7,8)  $30 Wager 

$1 Trifecta (5 with 3,7,8 with 3,4,5,6,7,8)  $15 Wager 

$1 Trifecta (3,7,8 with 5 with 3,4,5,6,7,8) $15 Wager 

Race 12: Breeders Crown Open Pace 

It’s hard to believe that BETTOR SWEET is going to be favored.  Just a few weeks ago he was in the middle of an 0 for 2012.  Now he seems to have found himself and is prepared to once again light it up on racing’s biggest stage.  Given his current form, he could very well be the one to deny winning back to back Breeders Crown’s. ARACACHE HANOVER is a good value play for me.  He wasn’t asked to pace much in his prep last week and he was within ½ length of BETTOR SWEET in Lexington.  He certainly packs plenty of speed, let’s see if McNair airs it out now.  FOILED AGAIN is having another million dollar season and while he doesn’t necessarily win as often as he has in the past, he is right there just about every start and cannot be ignored. 

Play: $20 Win 2 Aracache Hanover 

Play: $5 Exacta Box Wheel ( 2 with 7,8) $20 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (2 with 7,8 with ALL) $16 Wager 

Play: $1 Trifecta (7,8 with 2 with ALL) $16 Wager 

Play: $1 Super (2,7,8 with 2,7,8 with 1,2,7,8 with ALL) $84 Wager  



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