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Handicapper Blog

Posted by Darin Zoccali on Saturday, October 20, 2012 4:59 PM

NFL Games -

Last Week: 2-2

Season: 13-9-2


Game 1: INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) vs. Cleveland

On paper, the Browns have a terrible pass defense.  But, they played 4 weeks without their all world cornerback Joe Haden.  With Revis out, Haden is the best corner active in the league and he will be draped all over Reggie Wayne all day.  Andrew Luck is starting to depend too much on Wayne and could find himself frustrated.  I expect an ugly game, where both running games perform well.  If it comes down to the run, I'll take Trent Richardson over Vic Ballard.

Play: Cleveland (+1.5), Cleveland (+153)


Game 2: New Orleans (-1.5) at TAMPA BAY

The spread on this game opened at 3.5 and has been trending Tampa all week. Jimmy Graham has been ruled out which is a big blow to a team that is just not the same on offense.  The loss of Robert Meachem has taken away a major deep threat and it is affecting the offense.  Brees will rely heavily on Marques Colston.  The Saints have one of the worst pass defenses in the league (as do the Bucs) and this game might just be a shootout.  I'll take the home team getting points, and to win the game out-right.

Play: Tampa Bay (+1.5), Tampa Bay (+120)


Game 3: Dallas (-2) at CAROLINA

The Cowboys are one of, if not the most inconsistent team in the NFL and it is hard to predict what they will do from one week to the next.  I don't like the matchup for them against the unique Panthers offense. The wide receivers are not possession, but quick receives which Dallas struggles with.  Demarco Murray is out, so Felix Jones gets the start and if he is not the most fragile running back in the NFL, he is close. This just looks like a bad matchup for Dallas.

Play: Carolina (+2), Carolina (+111)


Game 4: NY GIANTS (-6) vs. Washington

The Redskins will once again be without Pierre Garcon who continues to battle an odd foot injury.  That leaves the Redskins wideouts as Moss, Hankerson and Morgan, not exactly an intimidating bunch.  The Redskin run game has been solid, but Alfred Morris is not the type of runner that the Giants struggle against.  Ahmad Bradshaw is banged up after two monster workload games, but Andre Brown can spell him effectively.  The Giants pass game is as ferocious as ever, and their defense is coming together.  The Redskins usually play the Giants tough, but in this particular game, the Giants are simply a much better team.

Play: Giants (-6)


Fantasy Football -

Start Em:

QB - Josh Freeman

The Saints are just terrible against the pass and Freeman has really found his stride lately thanks in part to the re-emergence of Mike Williams.  Tampa will run the ball effectively with Martin and Blount and open up the Pass Game.  Won't be monstrous, but if you are in need of a start, I would start him over Schaub, Bradford, Hasselbeck, Palmer, Ponder, Fitzpatrick, etc...

RB - Chris Johnson

I know this is tough to do, because he could run for 12 yards on 13 carries and I will be honestly, I traded him for Marques Colston in a league. But this is a good matchup and Tennessee will want to establish the run.  This is one of those games that CJ?K really should take advantage of the matchup and perform well.

WR - Mike Williams

Mostly, see my comments on Josh Freeman.  I will add that Williams is a major deep threat and I wouldn't be surprised if he catches another 40+ yard TD here.

WR - Devery Henderson

Jimmy Graham is out so Brees will have to rely heavily on Colston.  But they are going to want to establish Henderson as a deep threat to open up the middle of the field and vice-versa.  Like Williams, I wouldn't be surprised to see a long TD catch.

TE - Jason Witten

He isn't a "sexy" name like Gronk or Hernandez, but Romo has to be getting increasingly frustrated by Dez Bryant's antics and drops and he will look to go to Mr. Reliable in the middle of the field.  It will be a possession type performance, but I'll take the 7 catches for 90 yards he will put up here.

DST - Minnesota Vikings

The Cardinals just do not play well on the road and their running game is trying to found some ground.  With Kevin Kolb out, and the worst offensive line in football, John Skelton is going to get sacked....ALOT.


Sit Em-

QB - Matt Stafford

Clearly Stafford has taken a step backward this season.  His mechanics have been reported as "awful" and for what it's worth it appears that is starting to catch up with Philip Rivers as well.  Bears Defense is not a good matchup.  Sit him for any of the following: Romo, Roethlisberger, Dalton, Cutler

RB - Benjarvis Green-Ellis

If he doesn't score, he just is not going to give you much points.  He rumbles along for a typical 60 yards on 18 carries.  But that's just about it.  Even with the injuries to the Steelers, his matchup with that Defense is one to avoid.

RB - DeAngelo Williams

The most quizzical big money signing that I can remember.  The Panthers gave this guy Elite RB1 money, and he's an RB3 behind Stewart and Newton.  If he doesn't pop a big run, he'll get you 4 points.  For me, that earns him a spot on the bench.

WR - Anquan Boldin

The Texans defense is MUCH better than it showed against the Packers.  They have make adjustments to the bump and run coverage.  If they do not, Torrey Smith is the play to get behind the secondary.  The Texans handle possession receivers like Boldin.

WR - Randall Cobb

The Rams are actually tough against the pass and Cobb is becoming a little lost in the Packers offense behind Nelson and Jones.  When Jennings comes back, he'll be an after-thought.  This is not a good matchup.

TE - Heath Miller

Miller could find himself in a situation where he is blocking a lot, which will obviously clearly limit his opportunities.  The Bengals have a tough D-Line and he will be needed in protection.



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