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Handicapper Blog

Posted by Darin Zoccali on Sunday, October 14, 2012 3:17 AM

NFL Games (Week 6):


Last Week: 2-2

Season: 11-7-2


Game 1: NY JETS (-3.5) vs. Indianapolis


The Jets were able to hang in there against the Texans, only losing by a touchdown.  But I honestly feel that the Colts are the better team, even with Donald Brown out.  I'm not convinced that Cromartie is going to be able to shut down Wayne, like he did Andre Johnson.  Luck and Wayne are clicking on all cylinders, and they have other weapons that are not as advertised.  The Jets are going to need to rely on big plays as they just dont put together long, well-rounded drives.  I don't think the Jets have enough playmakers to win this game, let alone cover the spread.


Play: Indianapolis (+3.5) and Indianapolis (+160)


Game 2: ATLANTA (-9) vs. Oakland


The Falcons are one of, if not the most potent office in the NFL.  Matt Ryan is in the midst of a career season, with a litany of weapons to choose from.  Oakland's defense is suspect at best, awful at worst.  Their Zone Blocking Run Scheme has been a detriment to Darren McFadden and Carson Palmer has not played as well as the Raiders would have hoped.  In Atlanta, it's hard to not see this game getting out of hand and in a hurry.


Play: Atlanta (-9)


Game 3: ARIZONA (-4) vs. Buffalo


Arizona was exposed in St. Louis.  That being said, this game is in Arizona.  Yes, their offensive line is beyond bad, it is pathetic.  But Buffalo is in a weird state.  They don't know who they want to run the ball more, Fred Jackson or Spiller, and Arizona is good against the run.  Arizona is down to their 3rd and 4th choices at running back though, and Kevin Kolb is extremely inconsistent.  So basically, this is an ugly game that looks like a toss-up.  In that instance take the points, where you can


Play: Buffalo (+4)


Game 4: SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) vs. NY Giants


The most appealing game of the week comes with an awfully inviting spread.  The 49ers defense is beyond legit, it's one for the books. It's offense blows hot and cold.  The Giants need to shutdown two players in this game, Frank Gore and Vernon Davis.  The 49ers wide receivers, while improved, are far from scary.  The other thing the Giants need to do is get to the quarterback, something they have not done in the last two games, despite their talented defensive line.  Either way, this game looks closer than the 6.5 point spread.


Play: NY Giants (+6.5)


Fantasy Football:


Start 'Em:


QB: Andrew Luck - With Donald Brown down, Vic Ballard is going to run. He'll be effective to open up play action. Luck to Wayne early and often.

QB: Christian Ponder - Taking on the Redskins poor defense against the pass.  Harvin and Rudolph will be big in the gameplan.  Ponder will have a nice game.

RB: Reggie Bush - The Rams are not very good against the run.  They looked better than they are last week, because the Cardinals offensive line is that bad. Bush a safe bet for 100 yards plus. 

RB: Vic Ballard - Gets to debut with Donald Brown out.  Likely in for a heavy workload and the Colts will want to establish the run early aginst the Jets 31st ranked defense against the run.

WR: Dwayne Bowe - Tampa Bay is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Kansas City may have a tough time running, as their run defense is actually good. Cassell will have to look for Bowe.

WR: Andrew Roberts - The Bills are terrible against the air attack, and while its obvious to always start Fitzgerald, Roberts is a safe bet to find the endzone.

TE: Kyle Rudolph - Washington is one of the worst against the tight end, in fact 31st in the league.  Rudolph is Ponder's go to guy in the redzone and the Vikings are still not thrilled with bashing AP into a goal line defense. Scores.

D/ST: Miami Dolphins - Amendola out. Bradford not looking good. S-Jax underused. Dolphins are a shut down run defense. Less than 10 points, less than 300 total yards for the Rams.


Sit 'Em:


QB: Andy Dalton - Joe Haden back and will be draped all over A.J. Green. For Dalton to have a day, Hawkins and Gresham have to shine. Not likely in an ugly game.

QB: Eli Manning - If you have another option, try it.  Manning can find a way to win this game, but he is not likely to put up gaudy numbers, despite Nicks being back.

RB: Steven Jackson - The Rams really like Daryl Richardson and they have begun phasing out S-Jax. He also gets the #1 ranked defense against the run. 50 Yards...maybe.

RB: Ahmad Bradshaw - No Andrew Brown and the #2 run defense in the NFL. Many will likely start Bradshaw after his performance last week, but it's a mistake. If you start him, pray he scores.

WR: Anquan Boldin - The Cowboys are actually very good against the pass and they are likely very aware of Boldin's recent resurgence.  They'll try to shut him down.

WR: Brandon Lloyd - Aaron Hernandez will play a little, and the Seahawks are very good defending to the outside.  If any receiver has a day, it's Welker. Edelman out again.

TE: Brandon Pettigrew - The Eagles are very good against Tight Ends this year.  The Lions offense is sputtering and Pettigrew is a little banged up. Better options out there.

D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles - Face Calvin Johnson and good luck.  This game looks like a shootout.  Not good for either defense. 



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